Financial instruments that represent a tonne of CO₂ removed or reduced from the atmosphere.
From Iran to Taylor Swift: Informed Trading in Prediction Markets
It is unclear that the bill would have deterred the cases we document. The Maduro and Iran strike trades appeared to involved non-public information possessed by military and national security personnel who are already covered by separate statutes—or, in the case of the Iranian operation, possibly foreign nationals. And the Taylor Swift case involved personal social knowledge entirely outside government information channels. 7004 would have any measurable effect on insider trading in prediction markets. Finally, we consider a liability theory directed at informed traders themselves on decentralized platforms that resist operator-level regulation. We argue for extending the misappropriation doctrine’s breach-of-duty framework, through CFTC rulemaking, to cover the non-securities duties of confidentiality that government employees, military personnel, and corporate insiders owe to their respective principals.
Price List
- In the hours before the February 28, 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran—one of the most closely guarded military operations in recent history—six newly created Polymarket wallets collectively earned approximately $1.2 million by purchasing ‘Yes’ shares in the ‘US strikes Iran by February 28?
- The findings carry weight in ongoing policy debates over which market mechanisms best serve climate goals.
- The Nasdaq 100 is down around 9%, the Dow has fallen 5% and the small cap Russell 2000 is only down 2%.
- Please ensure you understand how this product works and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing money.
Given the abundance of insider trading in prediction markets, lawmakers have begun to consider whether legislative intervention is warranted. Most prediction market contracts whose payoffs depend on geopolitical or macroeconomic events are unlikely to qualify as securities and may instead be commodities. Securities law’s anti-fraud provisions do not apply to commodity contracts. Our paper’s legal analysis identifies three structural reasons why existing law has failed to address informed trading in prediction markets. The regulatory and enforcement community is beginning to respond.
Reports that president Trump may simply declare victory and walk away, leaving Iran in control of the straits, suggest the US president is tiring of the war. But such a situation would be unsustainable, and leave Iran with the ability to hold the global economy hostage. At the end of 2025, oil prices, which had been in decline for most of the year, stood at around $60 for Brent and $56 for WTI. Prices had risen through January and February, but Trump’s war in Iran unleashed a huge surge in oil prices that has seen Brent nearly double and WTI up 80%.
The information on this site is not directed at residents of the United States and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. The information in this site does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of or solicitation for transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for bramridge any consequences that result. IG International Limited is licensed to conduct investment business and digital asset business by the Bermuda Monetary Authority.
Trading Calendar
One account, operating under the handle ‘Magamyman,’ placed its first trade seventy-one minutes before the news broke, when markets implied only a 17% probability of a strike. When those markets resolved in the affirmative, the account’s profits totalled approximately $553,000. Our paper joins a literature that has long recognized prediction markets as valuable instruments for aggregating dispersed information. The foundational Hayekian insight—that decentralized markets harness private knowledge more efficiently than any centralized mechanism—has been empirically validated in contexts ranging from presidential elections to economic forecasting.
Trading Halts
A February 2026 Federal Reserve Board study finds that Kalshi’s macroeconomic prediction markets achieve accuracy on CPI and GDP releases that rivals or exceeds professional forecasts, with rich intraday dynamics that daily data entirely miss. Perhaps the surprising thing is that oil prices are not higher than their current levels. A closure of the Straits of Hormuz is set to throw the global economy into disorder, as the impact of the closure ripples through markets and economies.